*energy & meteo system Gmbh, Marie-Curie Strasse 1
26129 Oldenburg
mail: matthias 'dot' lange 'at' energymeteo.com
Tel +49 441 36116-470, Fax +49 44136116-479
www.energymeteo.com

Forecast errors occur often due to failures in numerical weather models. Therefore, an alarming module has been developed to warn in the very short term (0h-6h) where no forecasting updates or analyses are available from weather services. Here the predicted large scale weather situation is compared to the observed weather in real-time. It uses numerical weather prediction data and measurements from synoptic stations as well as the current wind power prediction error.

 

Figure: The pressure fields of prediction (magenta lines) and observation (black lines) as well as the trajectories of the low pressure are compared to detect severe deviations, e.g. in the pressure gradient over different areas (coloured as coded in the colour bar). This information is retrieved from online data.

 

If a significant deviation is detected the user obtains a warning as shown in the following example.

Each warning was issued 3 hours before the event, at 18UTC. e.g. warning 4 (W4) is valid for 21 UTC and was issued

 

• The forecasting user has pre-warning time of about 3 hours to react to an upcoming forecasting error
• The user can purchase the surplus or deficit on the energy market and avoid expensive balancing power

 

The alarming module is still under further development. Our aim is to make it available to customers in 2013 after thorough practical testing.

 

 

Figure: Time series example of the warning module:

 

 

Original Standard

• forecast (red line)
• measurement (black line)

• prediction interval (vertical red lines)
• the median of the prediction intervals (red dots) can be used as forecast update.